We provide causal estimates of the impact of short-term rental regulations by exploiting a quasi-natural reform implemented in the city of Lisbon. In November 2018, the municipality of Lisbon banned the registry of new short-term rental properties in some neighborhoods. We rely on two administrative data sets on short-term rental registries, between 2015 and 2019, and house transactions between 2017 and 2019. We also use data on Airbnb rental prices since 2018. We employ a difference-in differences estimation taking advantage of the spatial discontinuity in the registry ban. We document a spike in new registries between the announcement and the implementation of the ban, driven by domestic incumbent owners. Airbnb prices do not seem to react to the ban. Both the number of transactions and house prices decreased after the reform, mostly in two-bedroom flats. Our findings confirm a sizeable impact of short-term rentals on real estate prices, concentrated in a segment of smaller houses.
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