Seminários GEE
- Autor(es): José Mesquita Gabriel, João Pereira dos Santos e José Tavares
- Ano: 2024
Expanding regional eligibility in the access to grants can have important consequences for the performance of firms. The authors examine a quasi-natural experiment that consisted of a redrawing of administrative areas intended to increase accessibility to European Union (EU) funds using a rich administrative dataset that covers the universe of Portuguese private firms between 2003 and 2010. Their results uncover a positive causal impact of increased eligibility on firms’ sales. In contrast, employment and labour productivity do not seem to be significantly impacted by the reform. The effects are heterogeneous: while sales of firms in the services and non-tradable sectors are positively impacted, sales of firms in more competitive sectors are not affected.
European Funds and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
- Autor(es): João Leitão, Joaquim Ferreira e Ernesto Santibanez-González
- Ano: 2024
Climate change and implementation of the European Green Deal have raised the demand for ecologically friendly financial products and green finance, particularly fixed-income instruments such as green bonds. Four Limited Dependent Variable models are used, and the results show that market size and market liquidity are the most important predictors of green bond issuance, with proportionate positive and negative effects. Green bond issuance is also impacted by the size factor and environmental technological innovation. Because assets and capitalization are used as collateral when issuing green debt, the current empirical findings demonstrate that size is an essential component in market accounting features other than green bonds, which portray themselves as a hedge market to stock market liquidity. Environmental technological innovation drives green bond issuance because it acts as a market signalling mechanism for a socially responsible company strategy, providing critical information to decision-makers, managers, and investors.
Green finance sources in Iberian listed firms: A socially responsible investment approach.pdf
- Autor(es): João Pereira dos Santos
- Ano: 2024
Residency by Investment programs have become integral to contemporary migration policies, providing a distinct pathway for individuals to acquire a new legal status through financial investment. In this paper, the authors study the extent to which golden visas distort real estate housing markets in Portugal. Using the population of transactions records from 2007 to 2019, they report the (preliminary) results from bunching techniques and difference-in-differences analysis around the 500,000 threshold, the most popular investment type. The authors complement the analysis with the results of a survey to shed light on the public opinion regarding this topic.
- Autor(es): Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta e Tiago Pinheiro
- Ano: 2023
This study analyzed the effects of the Portuguese COVID-19 sovereign loan guarantee scheme on financial stability using a DSGE model. Sovereign loan guarantees decrease the default rate of banks, increase credit, and speed up economic recovery. On the other hand, guarantees increase the leverage and default rate of firms. These effects are larger the lower the sensitivity of the capital of banks to capital requirements. Behind these results are the reduction in regulatory risk-weights and the transfer of loan losses from banks to the sovereign brought by sovereign loan guarantees.
The COVID-19 Pandemic, Sovereign Loan Guarantees, and Financial Stability.pdf
A desaceleração do crescimento da produtividade agregada em Portugal: os fundamentos microeconómicos
- Autor(es): Diogo Teixeira
- Ano: 2023
A produtividade do trabalho é um fator chave para o crescimento de longo prazo de uma economia, influenciando o nível de vida material dos indivíduos. Desde o início do século, Portugal, assim como grande parte dos países desenvolvidos, observa um desacelerar do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Análises empíricas recentes que tentam aferir as explicações para o abrandamento do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho enfatizam a relevância das análises microeconómicas. Em concreto, demonstram que as principais causas para tal abrandamento estão associadas a um aumento da dispersão entre empresas do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho que advém do abrandamento no crescimento da difusão da inovação das empresas fronteira (top 10% mais produtivas de cada setor) para as empresas não fronteira (todas as restantes) e de uma maior dispersão entre empresas na evolução das markups. A evidência para Portugal sobre o abrandamento do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho é relativamente parca, sendo a grande maioria das análises existentes efetuadas a um nível setorial ou macroeconómico, não existindo estudos que relacionem o abrandamento do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho com a evolução das markups. Tendo em conta que as markups médias são consideradas uma medida robusta do grau de concorrência de mercado, seria expectável que, em face dos desenvolvimentos que Portugal observou nos últimos anos, no sentido de maior concorrência de mercado, a taxa de crescimento da produtividade agregada fosse crescente. A explicação deste aparente paradoxo exige, por um lado, uma análise mais detalhada, do ponto de vista teórico, dos mecanismos pelos quais a evolução das markups tende a influenciar a evolução da produtividade do trabalho e, por outro lado, um estudo quantitativo de caráter microeconómico.
- Autor(es): José António Pereirinha e Elvira Pereira
- Ano: 2023
Living wage (LW) is a concept that goes beyond that of national minimum wage (NMW), since it implies income adequacy to the wage earners and to his/her family members. It is coherent with the principle related to wages of the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) namely the right of workers to fair wages, and the duty to ensure adequate minimum wages providing the satisfaction of the worker needs and of his/her family, which originated a proposal of the European Commission for a Directive on adequate minimum wages in the European Union. This article discusses the possibility of implementation of a LW policy in Portugal, a country with low average and median wages, a generous NMW relative to average and median wage, high earnings inequality and a polarised labour market. To be defensible, this policy should reach household income adequacy, be feasible regarding the labour and fiscal costs, and be socially acceptable regarding the change of earnings distribution. The discussion of this policy is made using EU-SILC data and data from interviews with social partners involved in the national level social dialogue. The authors quantify and qualify some of the trade-offs, simulating different values for core policy variables, centred on the worker as a wage earner, as a household member and as a citizen with social rights and fiscal duties, supported on an adequate normative estimation of a consensual Minimum Income Standard (MIS) for the Portuguese households.
Living wages in Portugal: In search of dignity in a polarised labour market.pdf
- Autor(es): Henrique Silva Santos
- Ano: 2023
Fiscal stimuli in the aftermath of COVID-19 were similar in size but generated different economic responses across countries. This paper studies the role of Poor Hand-to-Mouth and Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth agents in shaping fiscal multipliers, comparing a Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian Model with one and two assets, to properly account for the correct share of liquidity-constrained agents, across 5 different Euro Area economies, including Portugal. The findings suggest that multipliers are greater when the two-asset framework is employed, but only the share of Poor Hand-to-Mouth agents seems significant to explain cross-country heterogeneity in multipliers. These results are robust to the multiplier choice, the shock financing and the monetary policy employed. They also bring important policy implications, as the fact that economies respond differently to government spending shocks because of household heterogeneity suggests that attention should be drawn to households' wealth distribution.
Fiscal Multipliers and Liquidity Constraints: a HANK approach.pdf
- Autor(es): Ricardo Duque Gabriel
- Ano: 2023
Public procurement accounts for one third of government spending. In this paper, it is documented a new mechanism through which government procurement promotes firm growth: firms use procurement contracts to increase the amount of cash-flow based lending. It uses Portuguese administrative data over 2009-2019 and exploits public contests as a source of quasi-exogenous variation in the award of procurement contracts. Winning an additional €1 from a procurement contract increases firm credit by €0.05 at lower interest rates. This finding highlights a mechanism through which future fiscal stimulus can impact the real economy today: procurement contracts increase firms’ net worth by increasing future cash-flows that can be used as collateral to ease borrowing constraints and boost corporate liquidity. Consequently, this enhanced access to credit promotes higher investment and employment with these effects being more pronounced and persistent in smaller and financially constrained firms. At the aggregate level, the author empirically estimates that an additional €1 in public procurement increases regional output by €1.8 with the credit channel accounting for 10% of it.
Apresentação 85.º Seminário GEE-GPEARI-The Credit Channel of Public Procurement.pdf
- Autor(es): Gabriel Osório de Barros
- Ano: 2023
As Criptomoedas são uma nova realidade que comporta não só vantagens e oportunidades, mas também um conjunto de riscos e desafios. Se, pela positiva, se destacam a rapidez da transação, o custo reduzido, a privacidade, a criação de novas moedas com ligação a ativos ou a disponibilidade permanente do sistema, por outro lado, identificam-se preocupações quanto à volatilidade, à reduzida oferta de bens e serviços que as aceitem como pagamento, o alto custo da energia e as ameaças ambientais, os potenciais ataques criminosos, a lavagem de dinheiro e o financiamento de atividades criminosas. Neste seminário será enquadrado o tema e serão apresentadas as principais vantagens e riscos.
Apresentação 84.º Seminário GEE-GPEARI Criptomoedas-Vantagens e riscos.pdf
- Autor(es): Joana Garcia
- Ano: 2023
Multinational groups may use services transactions between firms of the same group to shift profits from high-tax to low-tax countries, a strategy usually denominated as profit shifting. The analysis explores whether those potential practices translate into an unusually large propensity of multinationals to import intra-group services from tax havens and/or into an excessive value of those imports.
It is shown that in Portugal – a high-tax country where policies significantly discourage transactions with tax havens, multinational groups do not display a systematic excessive propensity to import intra-group services from tax havens. They even systematically avoid importing from the havens that are directly targeted by Portuguese anti-tax planning policies. This notwithstanding, the value of imports by some groups from a subset of tax havens is abnormally large.
Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning
