Autor(es): Mauricio Bussi
Ano: 2020

The intervention will explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across different economies and labour markets. It will highlight the critical determinants of employment losses and will describe the key features of various recovery plans that are expected to be slow, painful and uncertain. It will also describe policy responses that have been decisive in some instances but also highlight the fact that significant gaps remain. It will conclude by depicting possible elements of how the human-centred approach articulated in the ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work might best be brought to bear on the extraordinary challenges of recovery that the COVID-19 crisis poses to the world of work.




Autor(es): GEE / ANI
Ano: 2020


O Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) e a Agência Nacional de Inovação (ANI) convidam para a sessão de apresentação dos artigos premiados no âmbito da Call for Papers sobre “I&D e Inovação na Economia Digital”.

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Autor(es): Francisco Rodrigues
Ano: 2020

We expand the survey on Gazelles by focusing on the Portuguese case. Such firms drive a disproportionally large amount of net job creation, and we examine what sets them apart from their peers in the Portuguese business fabric. Our analysis focus on balance sheet data spanning from 2006 to 2017. The produced evidence suggests the availability of human capital and the young age of the firm contribute to both exceptional and average growth. However, it is the enhanced innovative capacity, the availability of equity, and the exporting status of the firm that might be setting the difference between the average and the exceptional growth performance – thus pointing to nonlinearities in the growth process. The effect of competing in foreign markets is intertwined with the age of the firm. Internationalization is positively associated with exceptional net job creation only for more mature firms. Our results also suggest that the lack of access to adequate external funding was not a hampering factor to high-growth during the period covered. Finally, in line with previous studies, we find no persistency in the process of high-growth, since qualifying as a Gazelle is unlikely to be a recurrent fact over the years for a given firm.


Slides / Paper

Autor(es): João Duarte
Ano: 2020

We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to historically large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.



Autor(es): Amílcar Moreira
Ano: 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic tipped the world into a global economic crisis for the second time in little more than a decade . Building on key insights about the nature and depth of the Great Recession (see Gough 2011; Verick and Islam; 2010) and the response that policy-makers put in place to curtail its impact on social welfare (see Starke et al, 2013), this paper aims to examine the nature of the early social policy response to the COVID19 pandemic in OECD nations. The paper is structured as follows. First, and taking as reference developments at the start of Financial Crisis, the paper discusses the nature of the current crisis in terms of its scale, spread, speed and the (a)symmetric nature of its impact. The second part of the paper discusses differences and continuies in the response to the current crisis, as compared with the measures taken to deal with the impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Autor(es): Manuel Mira Godinho
Ano: 2020

Foi feita uma análise da evolução de indicadores de produtividade na economia portuguesa ao longo de meio século, designadamente de produtividade total dos factores (PTF). Verificou-se uma pronunciada desaceleração ao longo das décadas, com a PTF a evoluir a partir de 1993 a uma taxa média anual de 0%, bem inferior à média da OCDE. Ao fazer-se a desagregação do crescimento do PIB, constatou-se que o principal contributo no subperíodo mais recente provém sobretudo do "Capital não-TIC". A evolução verificada ocorreu num quadro de mudança estrutural, no qual o sector secundário registou maior aumento de produtividade, embora o respectivo emprego tenha sofrido significativo retrocesso no período mais recente. 



Autor(es): José Tavares
Ano: 2020

We investigate the causal relationship between local government expenditure and private firm performance, using the quantity and naming of civil parishes within each municipality as an instrumental variable. Religious denominations are taken as a proxy for strong local identity, which likely increases competition for resources between neighboring parishes. We explore a dataset on the universe of private firms, local government expenditure categories and socio-economic indicators for all mainland Portuguese municipalities, in a period encompassing both normal and crisis times. The number of parishes per municipality, as exogenously set by the central government, and the number of parishes that display religious denominations are both used as instruments that explain local government spending, indirectly impacting firm performance. We find that both display considerable power in determining total primary and current spending, which then positively impacts private firms’ sales and value added. Using religious denominations is found to yield a particularly potent instrument, confirming and expanding the baseline results. In a field that mostly relies on natural experiments for instrumental variable frameworks, our proposed instruments are both easily obtainable and powerful.

Apresentação - mult pres 21-5-20.pdf

Firm Performance and Religious Denominations CEPR-DP14448.pdf


Autor(es): Luísa Farinha
Ano: 2020

Bank funding and the survival of start-ups



Autor(es): Frederico Leal
Ano: 2020

Fiscal episodes in the EMU: elasticities and non-keynesian effects


Fiscal Episodes in the EMU.pdf

Autor(es): Jorge Bravo
Ano: 2019

Impacto macroeconómico da titularização do subsídio de refeição