Autor(es): João Duarte
Ano: 2020

We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to historically large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.



Autor(es): Amílcar Moreira
Ano: 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic tipped the world into a global economic crisis for the second time in little more than a decade . Building on key insights about the nature and depth of the Great Recession (see Gough 2011; Verick and Islam; 2010) and the response that policy-makers put in place to curtail its impact on social welfare (see Starke et al, 2013), this paper aims to examine the nature of the early social policy response to the COVID19 pandemic in OECD nations. The paper is structured as follows. First, and taking as reference developments at the start of Financial Crisis, the paper discusses the nature of the current crisis in terms of its scale, spread, speed and the (a)symmetric nature of its impact. The second part of the paper discusses differences and continuies in the response to the current crisis, as compared with the measures taken to deal with the impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Autor(es): Manuel Mira Godinho
Ano: 2020

Foi feita uma análise da evolução de indicadores de produtividade na economia portuguesa ao longo de meio século, designadamente de produtividade total dos factores (PTF). Verificou-se uma pronunciada desaceleração ao longo das décadas, com a PTF a evoluir a partir de 1993 a uma taxa média anual de 0%, bem inferior à média da OCDE. Ao fazer-se a desagregação do crescimento do PIB, constatou-se que o principal contributo no subperíodo mais recente provém sobretudo do "Capital não-TIC". A evolução verificada ocorreu num quadro de mudança estrutural, no qual o sector secundário registou maior aumento de produtividade, embora o respectivo emprego tenha sofrido significativo retrocesso no período mais recente. 



Autor(es): José Tavares
Ano: 2020

We investigate the causal relationship between local government expenditure and private firm performance, using the quantity and naming of civil parishes within each municipality as an instrumental variable. Religious denominations are taken as a proxy for strong local identity, which likely increases competition for resources between neighboring parishes. We explore a dataset on the universe of private firms, local government expenditure categories and socio-economic indicators for all mainland Portuguese municipalities, in a period encompassing both normal and crisis times. The number of parishes per municipality, as exogenously set by the central government, and the number of parishes that display religious denominations are both used as instruments that explain local government spending, indirectly impacting firm performance. We find that both display considerable power in determining total primary and current spending, which then positively impacts private firms’ sales and value added. Using religious denominations is found to yield a particularly potent instrument, confirming and expanding the baseline results. In a field that mostly relies on natural experiments for instrumental variable frameworks, our proposed instruments are both easily obtainable and powerful.

Apresentação - mult pres 21-5-20.pdf

Firm Performance and Religious Denominations CEPR-DP14448.pdf


Autor(es): Luísa Farinha
Ano: 2020

Bank funding and the survival of start-ups



Autor(es): Frederico Leal
Ano: 2020

Fiscal episodes in the EMU: elasticities and non-keynesian effects


Fiscal Episodes in the EMU.pdf

Autor(es): Jorge Bravo
Ano: 2019

Impacto macroeconómico da titularização do subsídio de refeição



Autor(es): GEE / APS
Ano: 2019

Conferência “Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa” para apresentação dos artigos vencedores da Call for Papers.


- GEE - Call Poupança e Financiamento - Programa da Conferência

- Trabalhos vencedores

- Apresentações

- Vídeo apresentado na conferência

- Fotos da Conferência


Autor(es): Luís Pedro Machado
Ano: 2019


Exporter Firms Behaviour, Evidence from Portuguese Firms using Microdata - Slides / Paper