Seminários GEE
- Autor(es): José António Pereirinha e Elvira Pereira
- Ano: 2023
Living wage (LW) is a concept that goes beyond that of national minimum wage (NMW), since it implies income adequacy to the wage earners and to his/her family members. It is coherent with the principle related to wages of the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) namely the right of workers to fair wages, and the duty to ensure adequate minimum wages providing the satisfaction of the worker needs and of his/her family, which originated a proposal of the European Commission for a Directive on adequate minimum wages in the European Union. This article discusses the possibility of implementation of a LW policy in Portugal, a country with low average and median wages, a generous NMW relative to average and median wage, high earnings inequality and a polarised labour market. To be defensible, this policy should reach household income adequacy, be feasible regarding the labour and fiscal costs, and be socially acceptable regarding the change of earnings distribution. The discussion of this policy is made using EU-SILC data and data from interviews with social partners involved in the national level social dialogue. The authors quantify and qualify some of the trade-offs, simulating different values for core policy variables, centred on the worker as a wage earner, as a household member and as a citizen with social rights and fiscal duties, supported on an adequate normative estimation of a consensual Minimum Income Standard (MIS) for the Portuguese households.
Living wages in Portugal: In search of dignity in a polarised labour market.pdf
- Autor(es): Henrique Silva Santos
- Ano: 2023
Fiscal stimuli in the aftermath of COVID-19 were similar in size but generated different economic responses across countries. This paper studies the role of Poor Hand-to-Mouth and Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth agents in shaping fiscal multipliers, comparing a Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian Model with one and two assets, to properly account for the correct share of liquidity-constrained agents, across 5 different Euro Area economies, including Portugal. The findings suggest that multipliers are greater when the two-asset framework is employed, but only the share of Poor Hand-to-Mouth agents seems significant to explain cross-country heterogeneity in multipliers. These results are robust to the multiplier choice, the shock financing and the monetary policy employed. They also bring important policy implications, as the fact that economies respond differently to government spending shocks because of household heterogeneity suggests that attention should be drawn to households' wealth distribution.
Fiscal Multipliers and Liquidity Constraints: a HANK approach.pdf
- Autor(es): Ricardo Duque Gabriel
- Ano: 2023
Public procurement accounts for one third of government spending. In this paper, it is documented a new mechanism through which government procurement promotes firm growth: firms use procurement contracts to increase the amount of cash-flow based lending. It uses Portuguese administrative data over 2009-2019 and exploits public contests as a source of quasi-exogenous variation in the award of procurement contracts. Winning an additional €1 from a procurement contract increases firm credit by €0.05 at lower interest rates. This finding highlights a mechanism through which future fiscal stimulus can impact the real economy today: procurement contracts increase firms’ net worth by increasing future cash-flows that can be used as collateral to ease borrowing constraints and boost corporate liquidity. Consequently, this enhanced access to credit promotes higher investment and employment with these effects being more pronounced and persistent in smaller and financially constrained firms. At the aggregate level, the author empirically estimates that an additional €1 in public procurement increases regional output by €1.8 with the credit channel accounting for 10% of it.
Apresentação 85.º Seminário GEE-GPEARI-The Credit Channel of Public Procurement.pdf
- Autor(es): Gabriel Osório de Barros
- Ano: 2023
As Criptomoedas são uma nova realidade que comporta não só vantagens e oportunidades, mas também um conjunto de riscos e desafios. Se, pela positiva, se destacam a rapidez da transação, o custo reduzido, a privacidade, a criação de novas moedas com ligação a ativos ou a disponibilidade permanente do sistema, por outro lado, identificam-se preocupações quanto à volatilidade, à reduzida oferta de bens e serviços que as aceitem como pagamento, o alto custo da energia e as ameaças ambientais, os potenciais ataques criminosos, a lavagem de dinheiro e o financiamento de atividades criminosas. Neste seminário será enquadrado o tema e serão apresentadas as principais vantagens e riscos.
Apresentação 84.º Seminário GEE-GPEARI Criptomoedas-Vantagens e riscos.pdf
- Autor(es): Joana Garcia
- Ano: 2023
Multinational groups may use services transactions between firms of the same group to shift profits from high-tax to low-tax countries, a strategy usually denominated as profit shifting. The analysis explores whether those potential practices translate into an unusually large propensity of multinationals to import intra-group services from tax havens and/or into an excessive value of those imports.
It is shown that in Portugal – a high-tax country where policies significantly discourage transactions with tax havens, multinational groups do not display a systematic excessive propensity to import intra-group services from tax havens. They even systematically avoid importing from the havens that are directly targeted by Portuguese anti-tax planning policies. This notwithstanding, the value of imports by some groups from a subset of tax havens is abnormally large.
Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning
- Autor(es): Pedro Duarte
- Ano: 2023
Breve definição de auxílio de Estado, nos termos do Direito da União Europeia. Razão de ser, finalidade, limites técnico-jurídicos. A regra e as exceções. O processo de autorização da sua concessão. Os instrumentos, de direito primário e secundário, ao abrigo dos quais podem ser aprovados ou isentados de notificação. As decisões da Comissão e do Tribunal de Justiça.
- Autor(es): Pedro Martins
- Ano: 2023
As work evolves, firm-provided training may be more relevant. However, there is little causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme supported by the European Social Fund, contrasting firms in Portugal that received the grants and others that also applied but were unsuccessful. Combining several rich data sets, we compare a large number of potential outcomes of these firms, while following them over several years both before and after the grant decision. Our difference-in-differences models estimate significant positive effects on take up (training hours and expenditure), with limited deadweight; and that such additional training led to increased sales, value added, employment, productivity, and exports. These effects tend to be of at least 5% and, in some cases, 10% or more, and are robust in multiple dimensions.
- Autor(es): Marta C. Lopes e Inês Póvoa
- Ano: 2023
Este artigo analisa o impacto dos incêndios florestais no capital e nos níveis de emprego das empresas. O cruzamento da informação das empresas com a distribuição geográfica detalhada das áreas ardidas em Portugal em 2017, utilizando o código postal de 7 dígitos das empresas, permite distinguir empresas tratadas, localizadas em áreas queimadas, e um grupo de controlo de empresas em regiões não afetadas.
Utilizando uma metodologia de “diferença-nas-diferenças”, pode-se concluir que as empresas tratadas diminuíram, em média, os seus ativos em 10,3% e os níveis de emprego em 9,4%, em comparação com as empresas no grupo de controlo. Considerando a heterogeneidade na estrutura de ativos das empresas com maiores rácios de ativos relacionados com terrenos e edifícios. As perdas numa determinada região significativamente afetada por incêndios florestais podem ser substanciais, aproximadamente 0,6% e 1% para ativos e empregos, respetivamente. A quantificação dos impactos heterogéneos poderá ser relevante para o desenho das medidas ex-post de apoio às empresas afetadas por incêndios florestais.
The_impact_of_wildfire_on_assets_and_employment__GEE_ (5) (1).pdf
- Autor(es): Adriana Lopes, Filipe Ferreira, Gonçalo Santos, João Gomes e Margarida Caroço
- Ano: 2023
Considerando o contexto atual de aplicação de fundos provenientes da Estratégia Portugal 2030 e do Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência em que se destaca a relevância da transição digital, o estudo “The Impact of R&D investment in the ICT sector on labour productivity” procurou avaliar o impacto do investimento privado em R&D no setor das TIC na produtividade. Neste estudo utilizaram-se dados de 22 países europeus, tendo sido comparado o impacto da variação do investimento em I&D no setor das TIC na variação da produtividade com o respetivo impacto da variação desse investimento no setor não TIC, controlando a variação da população com educação secundária. Deste estudo concluiu-se que o impacto deste investimento é maior em setores não TIC comparativamente aos setores das TIC, embora o modelo desenvolvido apresente algumas limitações no que toca à omissão de variáveis que afetam também a produtividade.
Apresentação_79ºSeminário GPEARI GEE.pdf
The impact of R&D investment in the ICT sector on labour productivity.pdf
- Autor(es): Alessio Terzi
- Ano: 2022
Historically, industrialization, capitalism, and affluence have contributed to the emissions that are warming the planet’s atmosphere. As humanity starts to grapple with the Herculean challenge of climate change, should economic growth be abandoned to stand a chance of success? Would this lead to a better society, especially in already rich nations, freeing them from pointless consumerism? The book takes these legitimate concerns as a starting point to draw the reader on a journey into the socioeconomic, evolutionary, historical and cultural origins of the growth imperative. Growth is underpinned by the human quest for happiness, wellbeing and self-determination, and contributes to the stability of liberal democracy, the peaceful conduct of politics and international relations, and the very way our society is organized: capitalism. Ditching it would not only prove impractical, but would also sow chaos, exacerbating conflict within and between societies. Rather than simply stating impossibilities, Growth for Good draws a credible agenda to enroll capitalism in the fight to stave off climate catastrophe. Shelving command-and-control solutions, or the complete reliance on the market, Terzi details a plan involving an activist government, proactive business, and engaged citizens.
"Autor:
Alessio Terzi, a lecturer at HEC Paris and Sciences Po Lille, is an Economist at the European Commission. Prior to this, he was a Fellow at Bruegel and a Fulbright Scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School. He also has work experience from the European Central Bank. He obtained a PhD from the Hertie School with a thesis on economic growth, holds an MPA in economic policy from the LSE, and a BSc in international economics from Bocconi University. His research and commentaries have appeared in leading media outlets including BBC World News, Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal."